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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.